All,
What's more dangerous? A Detroit bus driver or an autonomous bus?
Here we are, 20 years removed from the first DARPA Challenge in the California desert. If the race to Level 4 autonomous is truly a race, then that event in March of 2004 was the waving of the checkered flag.
"Gentlemen, start your engines!"
House of Journalist' Charlie Volgelheim, former President of the Western Auto Journalists, is gathering a few of the key players from that event for a Zoom toast tomorrow. Charlie called Monday to see if I would recruit Larry Burns, former GM VP of R & D and a champion of autonomous vehicles, to join the celebration.
Larry caught up to me this morning at Biscuits & Gravy, my favorite Canton breakfast canteen. I was about to dive into my breakfast potatoes when Larry called.
"Tell Charlie that's a great idea, I'd love to be a part of it, but I have an all-day board meeting in Minneapolis tomorrow."
Larry then asked that I read two stories about autonomous buses -- one in the Detroit News and one in Axios
The Detroit News story is shocking. Detroit Department of Transportation drivers got into 369 accidents last year -- more than one a day.
More than two-thirds of the accidents involved other drivers. So, maybe you could convince yourself that in all cases -- 251 of them a year -- that the other driver was at fault. But then you read that 30 percent involved objects that don't move. And, in six cases, the bus hit a pedestrian!
It's so bad that Detroit's Mayor, Mike Duggan, is diverting Transit police from the People Mover to the buses. It's almost as if each bus driver needs a traffic cop sitting beside him or her, telling them what to do in all situations.
"Turn your blinker on." or "Wait! There's a pedestrian still in the crosswalk." Or, "Don't merge right, there's a car in your blind (crash) ... spot. Too late."
What?
Remind me not to get on a Detroit city bus. Or step in front of one at any time. Scary. Or even drive in the lane next to one. No thank you.
The story in Detroit gets worse. The city is being sued by the surviving family of Janice Bauer.
Geraldine Johnson was fired by DDOT after fatally running over 67-year-old Janice Bauer of Grosse Pointe Park, as she crossed the street with a walk signal in Downtown Detroit, during the summer of 2023.
Bauer was run over by both sets of tires, as Johnson accelerated upon impact, according to bus data.
Bauer was reportedly still conscious and breathing, according to a 9-1-1 log. However, Johnson did not get out of the bus to check.
In 2015, Johnson also hit and killed a passenger, Joey Davis, as he left the bus to get his bike off the rack in the front.
"It's mind-blowing," said Attorney Heather Atnip, representing one of the victims killed by bus driver Geraldine Johnson. "She should've been removed from operating the bus – if not prior to the first time that she killed somebody, certainly after that.
"At first. …you would think it's just a distracted bus driver, but our investigation has revealed it's way deeper than that," Atnip said. "I am concerned that there may be other bus drivers on the road right now, similarly situated, and there may be future victims."
Caught on video in the bus, Johnson was seen and heard screaming as she remained behind the wheel during both fatal crashes. In Johnson's 26-year career of driving Detroit buses, she killed 2 people and got into 19 accidents!
The safety officer for the city, Corie Holmes, argued that 174 of those 369 accidents -- almost half -- could have been prevented. And those avoidable accident numbers jumped 35 percent from 2022!
"We understand the concern raised regarding the recent increase in preventable accidents and the need for transparency and action to address this issue," Holmes said in a statement. "Safety is our top priority, and we are committed to taking proactive measures to ensure the well-being of our customers, operators and the community."
To which I say, "Is the city going to autonomous buses right now? Because we could do a lot better."
No. The city is looking to hire 200 new bus drivers and the bus driver's union is incensed.
But Schetrone Collier, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 26, said he expects DDOT collisions to increase after the city hires 200 new drivers this year.
"Driving a bus is not like driving a car; it's heavy equipment, and we have to drive in all conditions. When there's an ice storm or a blizzard and everyone stays home, the buses still run. With the hiring the city has done, and the hiring they plan to do, they're bringing in people who have never driven heavy equipment. That's going to show up in accident numbers."
Worse, some credible outlets that used to present a balanced view of the news have now become union rag sheets. A bullhorn. Yes, I'm talking about you Axios.
Unionized bus drivers have negotiated an unprecedented labor deal with a local transit agency that gives them veto power over autonomous vehicles (AVs).
Why it matters: It's one way labor unions hope to protect drivers' jobs, even amid driver shortages — and part of a broader backlash against self-driving vehicles.
Driving the news: The Transport Workers Union's new collective bargaining agreement with the Central Ohio Transit Authority (COTA) includes first-of-its-kind language requiring the union's consent to implement any form of autonomous transportation.
If such technology is deployed, a qualified union operator must be aboard.
The contract also says bus operators and mechanics cannot be laid off or have their wages reduced because of new or modified technology.
What ever happened to fair and balanced reporting? Tell both sides of a story. The bus unions have tried this before in California and failed. And, in Detroit, there is a "broader backlash" against bus drivers themselves. They are the danger. They are bad and their track record of driving is only getting worse.
That same Axios reporter wrote this story for Forbes just eight years ago. I know because I was in the same autonomous car with her when this happened.
A Driverless Car Saved My Life - No, Really.
Forbes Staff
I write about industrial innovation and the global auto industry
I got more than I bargained for the other day in heavy Las Vegas traffic during a demonstration of an autonomous vehicle.
I was riding in the rear seat of a specially equipped Audi Q5 SUV, getting a demonstration of Delphi’s “vehicle-to-everything” technology, which is a catch-all phrase for all the communication stuff needed for cars to safely drive themselves.
One of the first things I noticed was how polite the self-driving car was. It always stayed under the speed limit, and always drove a safe distance behind the car in front of us.
That point was driven home just a few minutes later when our car, now first in the left turn lane, got a green arrow to proceed. The Audi drove forward and started turning left, when all of a sudden, out of the corner of my eye, I saw not one, but two cars come speeding through the intersection from the right, running the red light. I wanted to yell “Look out!” but before I could even get the words out, the Audi slammed its brakes as the bad drivers swerved around us. If the self-driving car hadn’t detected what was about to happen and stopped, we likely would have been T-boned on the right side, and I might not be here to write this story.
So, which is it? Autonomous vehicles have great potential or they are the bane of bus unions. And, even if they are, should we abandon the technology altogether?
I have a client, Imagry, operating a number of autonomous buses in multiple places in Israel. Soon, it hopes to add an autonomous bus route in Germany.
Okay. But Scott, you can't be arguing for autonomous buses, given what happened at Cruise, Waymo and Tesla.
Well, let's look at that a little closer.
The first reports on the Oct. 2 fatality involving the Cruise Robotaxi implied that the driverless car ran over the woman. Later reports revealed that a car driven by a woman launched the pedestrian into the air and directly into the path of the robotaxi.
So what killed her? The initial accident or her falling under the tires of a robotaxi? Don't know. But it surely wasn't Geraldine Johnson-type road rage. Now, I'm not defending Cruise because its CEO lied -- to media, to investigators, tried covering up. Vogt deserved to be fired and maybe Cruise isn't the right approach. Imagry CEO Eran Ofir will gladly tell you that Cruise is taking the wrong approach. Imagry focuses on AI and a mapless approach. Cruise is hoping to refine sensors, improve data processing speed and store GPS maps. Ofir claims the Cruise approach is doomed to fail.
Waymo has been at it longer and has deeper pockets. Larry Burns is convinced Waymo will get there in the next 5 years. Tesla? I blame that on Elon Musk and a poorly chosen marketing name -- Autopilot. It simply isn't anything more than Level 2 Plus, augmenting the driver's ability.
So, 20 years in, we are just getting started on autonomous driving. People, reporters especially, are impatient. They want instant headlines, deliverables. Track records. Look at the EV reporting. First, it was gushing. Now, it's a feeding frenzy. Who can damn EVs fastest? Same with reporting on autonomous vehicles. The industry was wrong to over promote the timetables. We were promised ubiquitous robotaxis by 2020. That, obviously, didn't happen.
And yes, we need more development time. I think the next five years could be very promising for autonomous vehicles.
Admittedly, I'm a technology optimist. But here's where I lack confidence.
I don't think Detroit will find competent bus drivers anytime soon -- and that's scary for other Detroit motorists and pedestrians.
And now for the rest of the news.
Scott